Cramer-backed tax bill will help balloon debt to nearly 117% of U.S. GDP

Meanwhile Faux-Deficit Hawk Kevin Cramer gets a big laugh out of adding nearly $2 trillion to the national debt

(BISMARCK, ND) – It’s no secret the country’s debt crisis is growing – and fast. Yesterday, Bloomberg reported that U.S. debt-to-Growth Domestic Product (GDP) ratio is projected to reach nearly 117% by 2023. Former Republican Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan warned that the “unfunded” nature of the nearly $2 trillion partisan tax bill was cause for concern. Offering a little Econ 101, Greenspan advised Republicans to try “spending cuts first before you try to do tax cuts.”

Just last week, Republican U.S. Senator Bob Corker of Tennessee sounded alarms that the bill might be ‘one of the worst votes he’s made.’

Officials at the Federal Reserve and the Congressional Budget Office are skeptical that the GOP tax bill will stimulate substantial economic expansion, with GDP growth projected to shrink from 3.3 percent this year to 1.7 percent in 2020.

Highlights from the article below:

Bloomberg: U.S. Debt Load Seen Worse Than Italy’s by 2023, IMF Predicts

  • Mamma Mia! In five years, the U.S. government is forecast to have a bleaker debt profile than Italy, the perennial poor man of the Group of Seven industrial nations.
  • The U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio is projected widen to 116.9 percent by 2023 while Italy’s is seen narrowing to 116.6 percent, according to the latest data from the International Monetary Fund. The U.S. will also place ahead of both Mozambique and Burundi in terms of the weight of its fiscal burden.
  • The numbers put renewed focus on the U.S. deteriorating budget after the enactment in December of $1.5 trillion in tax cuts, and the passage more recently of $300 billion in new spending.
  • “The trouble, unfortunately, is it’s unfunded,” [Greenspan] said, adding that Republicans should have done “spending cuts first before you try to do tax cuts.”
  • “This president, obviously, is not a president that’s interested in fiscal issues,” Senator Bob Corker, a Republican from Tennessee, said in Washington earlier on Wednesday.

As Farmland Thaws After a Snowy Winter, Cramer Is Feeling the Heat for His Choice of Supporting a Trump Trade War over North Dakota Farmers

As more than 100 trade associations call for Congress to take action to protect Americans from tariffs, Kevin Cramer is nowhere to be found

Instead, Pass-the-Buck Cramer demeans farmers’ concerns by calling it “hysteria”

(BISMARCK, ND) – A New York Times report from Casselton found a brewing trade war could complicate Kevin Cramer’s attempts to woo the state’s soybean growers. The administration’s decision to prioritize the Rust Belt’s steel and aluminum industries could cost North Dakota farmers dearly – to the tune of a 25 percent tariff imposed by China. And Cramer’s refusal to push back on these protectionist policies could, in turn, cost him with North Dakota’s voters.

Instead of standing up for North Dakota, Kevin Cramer has abandoned his constituents (and his tweets in support of them). Cramer is once again toeing the party line, wagering with North Dakota farmers’ livelihoods that tariffs are a part of the administration’s ‘master plan.’ And farmers are taking notice.

Highlights from the article below:

New York Times: Across Midwest, Farmers Warn of G.O.P. Losses Over Trump’s Trade Policy

  • Here in the largest soybean-producing county in the country, a snowy winter has left North Dakota farmers like Robert Runck with time on their hands before spring planting — time they have spent stewing over how much they stand to lose if President Trump starts a trade war with China.
  • “If he doesn’t understand what he’s doing to the nation by doing what he’s doing, he’s going to be a one-term president, plain and simple,” said Mr. Runck, a fourth-generation farmer who voted for Mr. Trump. Pausing outside the post office in this town of 2,300, Mr. Runck said the repercussions could be more immediate for Representative Kevin Cramer, a Republican whose bid against Senator Heidi Heitkamp, a Democrat, has been complicated by the proposed tariffs. “If it doesn’t get resolved by election time, I would imagine it would cost Kevin Cramer some votes,” he said.
  • From the still-thawing soybean fields of North Dakota and Kansas to the corn and pork farms of Iowa, voters across the political spectrum say the president’s attacks on American economic rivals could do grave damage to an already unstable commodities market.
  • Instead, there are already whispers, in Washington and in agriculture states, that the president is risking a replay of President Jimmy Carter’s grain embargo on the Soviets, which contributed to the massive losses Democrats suffered in 1980.
  • Indeed, after a year in which Mr. Trump only mused about pulling out of Nafta and was stymied by Congress in his attempt to slash the Agriculture Department’s budget, there is now a sense in the farm belt that Mr. Trump’s yearning to punish China could inflict real economic and political damage on his own political base.
  • “This is the first time it’s in your face, especially to us in the Midwest,” said Ed Schafer, a Republican former governor of North Dakota who was agriculture secretary under George W. Bush.
  • There may be no other race in America that is at once as significant as the Senate contest here and as shaped by whether China’s tariffs take effect this year. Most of North Dakota’s votes are in the eastern end of the state, in the Red River Valley — a region that also happens to be home to the three largest soybean-producing counties in the nation.

With Cramer MIA, North Dakotans express grave concern over President Trump’s potential trade war

Does Kevin Cramer still think North Dakota farmers are hysterical?

(BISMARCK, ND) – North Dakotans are concerned about President Trump’s tariff and trade policies – but instead of standing up for them, Kevin Cramer condescendingly referred to them as hysterical. During the last few weeks, Cramer has been busy peddling conspiracy theories that their concerns have been cooked up by Democrats instead of working toward real solutions for our agricultural producers. Maybe that’s because Cramer believes opposing President Trump is akin to marital infidelity – but here are North Dakotans speaking out against the president’s tariffs:

“We never want to see a trade war, especially with a valued customer like China.” –Jared Hagert, Acting Director of the United Soybean Board from Emerado, ND

“Agriculture is now a global market, affecting our plans on what and how much we plant in acres each season. Agriculture will be the casualty in a trade war. Farmers are naturally optimistic; the weather will be better tomorrow when it rains and the sun is shining. Farmers think that because we are the world’s largest agricultural exporter that countries will have to come to us. History says otherwise! The tariffs on steel and aluminum will greatly affect Dakota farmers, especially corn and soybean farmers.” –Terry Ulrich, a fourth-generation farmer from Ashley, ND

“As an elevator, I can’t sell (soy)beans anywhere because of uncertainty. Nobody wants to buy them from us because they don’t know what the true price of the market should be.” –Doug Lingen, grain merchandiser for Dakota Plains in Kindred, ND

“It’s already affecting the marketplace. […] Weekly, we’re getting changes in prices going up, up, up. […] For us, it’s one of the raw material costs. […] It’s the eventual consumer of our product — a school, a shopping mall, whatever — that is going to have to pay more, or cancel the project if the cost goes up too much.” –Lee Holschuh, president and CEO of Mid-America Steel in Fargo, ND

“That’s a huge impact for us. That’s real, and our farmers and our members are obviously very, very concerned. […] We need to be cautious about losing markets we can’t get back into for a while. […] Sometimes, the ag sector is the first to be impacted and the slowest to respond after the fact.” –Pete Hanebutt, director of public policy with the North Dakota Farm Bureau

“If the U.S. starts raising tariffs on a significant number of goods, then we can expect costs in the U.S. are going to tend to increase and we’ll get not only less imports, but we’ll also tend to get less exports. […] In North Dakota, in particular, we can expect there to be a generally negative impact for tariffs. […] We play a dangerous game if we begin to increase tariffs. […] There’s a very good chance other countries will begin to increase tariffs.” –James Caton, assistant professor of economics in the Department of Agribusiness at North Dakota State University

TAX DAY SPECIAL: 5 things Kevin Cramer doesn’t want you to know about the tax bill

From broken promises, added debt and kickbacks for the Koch Brothers, Cramer tells tall tales on taxes

(BISMARCK, ND) – On Tax Day, you’ll hear a lot from Kevin Cramer and Mitch McConnell’s D.C. smear machine about the partisan, Washington Republican tax bill. But they’re not telling you the whole story.

Here are 5 things you won’t hear from Cramer or McConnell – his party boss – on Tax Day

1. The tax bill will add nearly $2 trillion to the deficit – much more than previously anticipated. 

By voting for the partisan, Washington Republican tax bill, Kevin Cramer added nearly $2 trillion to the national deficit – far more than previously anticipated. But despite these facts, Cramer has laughed off the deficit and even lied to voters, saying the bill would pay for itself.

2. You still can’t file your taxes on a postcard, despite promises from Cramer.

In addition to lying about the cost of the bill, Kevin Cramer told North Dakotans that they’d be able to file their taxes using a postcard. Despite Cramer’s claim, the tax bill still leaves many complications for families and small businesses and fails to deliver on Cramer’s postcard promise.

3. Health care costs are skyrocketing because of the tax bill. 

By gutting parts of the Affordable Care Act through the partisan tax bill, Cramer voted to raise health care costs for families in North Dakota and across the country. Thanks to changes Cramer supported, the independent Congressional Budget Office estimates premiums could jump nearly 35 percent.

4. Walmart isn’t a tax bill success story. 

Kevin Cramer loves to tout Wal-Mart as a tax bill success story. But behind their PR blitz, Walmart is closing more than 150 stores across the United States and more than 60 Sam’s Club stores, including one in the Fargo-Moorhead area.

5. Cramer voted to give massive tax breaks to the Koch Brothers – who are supporting his campaign – and to corporate executives.

Kevin Cramer doesn’t want you to know that his deep-pocketed political supporters benefited from the tax legislation – he even went so far as to lie and say the tax bill wasn’t supported by the Koch Brothers. But just recently, the out-of-state billionaire Koch Brothers ran a smear campaign against Heidi – using a body double to fool North Dakotans. But Cramer doesn’t want folks to know that the Koch Brothers ran away with billions from the tax bill, as corporate executives and the top one percent got more than 80 percent of the economic gains.

ICYMI: Coalition of manufacturers, farmers and businesses urge Congress, White House to back off trade war

More than 100 trade associations warn Congress that tariffs will be passed onto American consumers
Does Kevin Cramer think these businesses, farmers, manufacturers and consumers are hysterical?

(BISMARCK, ND) – Last week, more than 100 trade associations – representing manufacturers, workers, farmers and businesses – warned Congress of the potentially calamitous impact a trade war could have as a result of the president’s tariff policy. The large coalition underscored that while we must level the global playing-field for American businesses, tariffs are often passed onto Americans – effectively as a new tax on consumers.

But instead of speaking out for North Dakota farmers, businesses and manufacturers, Kevin Cramer has been busy being a rubber stamp for the White House – and panicking to pass the buck. He even went so far as to call concern from the tariffs as “hysteria.”

Key points from the letter below:

  • We are concerned that the proposed tariff list, and escalating tariff threats made by the Administration, however, will not effectively advance our shared goal of changing these harmful Chinese practices.
  • As Committee Members are aware, tariffs are hidden, regressive taxes that will be paid by U.S. businesses and consumers in the form of higher product prices.
  • While the Administration has signaled that the proposed tariffs are intended to inflict maximum pain on China and minimal pain on the U.S. consumer, unfortunately that is not the case.
  • Even more troubling the proposed list includes machinery, parts, chemicals and components that U.S. manufacturers and their workers need to make American products. This will impact downstream industries who rely on these materials and will ultimately result in higher prices for consumers for essential everyday products. Higher costs for manufacturing will result in less production here in the U.S. If imposed, these tariffs will result in higher prices for American consumers and fewer jobs for American workers.
  • China’s threat of retaliation further exacerbates uncertainty as farmers and manufacturers rely on the ability to export their crops and products to China for their livelihood, yet they are targeted for potential retaliation.
  • The escalation of trade tensions with China could result in harm to all our member companies, member farms, their workers, and their consumers. The impact of a trade war and tariffs would be felt by businesses, workers, farmers and consumers throughout the U.S. and across industry sectors. This would hurt the economy as a whole, as well as jobs and consumers in every state. Everyone loses in a trade war.

Happy Anniversary: One year ago today, GOP soured on Cramer’s candidacy

(BISMARCK, ND) – Just one year ago today, the Republican Party’s handwringing over a potential Kevin Cramer candidacy reached a fever pitch – as internal for concern that his Todd Akin tendencies could tank his campaign bubbled over.
Failing a nearly year-long effort to recruit a more viable candidate, now-GOP endorsed Cramer has proved their concerns valid – continuing to use outrageous rhetoric and put politics before North Dakota. He even suggested that voting against the president is like cheating on a spouse the very day he chose to side with the president over North Dakota farmers on potentially backbreaking tariffs.
Highlights from CNN’s story, one year ago today:
CNN: Nervous about GOP congressman, Republicans woo new North Dakota Senate candidate
  • Senior Senate GOP officials have grown concerned that Rep. Kevin Cramer’s penchant for controversial remarks could damage their chances at one of the party’s most prized opportunities to pickup the crucial seat occupied by Heitkamp, a rare Democratic statewide officeholder in the conservative state. Cramer’s latest remark: Defending Sean Spicer this week in the aftermath of the White House spokesman’s widely condemned comments about Adolf Hitler and the Holocaust.
  • The maneuvering comes as some influential Republicans now are fearful that Cramer could damage their chances if he commits gaffes like GOP candidate Todd Akin did in 2012 when he cost his party a chance to pickup the Missouri Senate seat.
  • “On paper, it looks like he could win, but he also appears to have a few Akin-like tendencies that make a lot of people nervous,” said one Senate GOP campaign veteran, who, like other top Republicans, asked for anonymity to assess the field candidly.
  • Cramer has made other controversial remarks in the past, including after Democratic women wore white to highlight the women’s suffrage movement during Trump’s speech to Congress earlier this year. Cramer called them “poorly dressed” with “bad-looking white pantsuits.”

Congressional Budget Office: Republican tax bill Cramer voted for will give 80 percent of economic gains to foreigners, increase deficit by $1.9 trillion

(BISMARCK, ND) – A new report from the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office shows that not only will the Republican tax bill Cramer supported put $1.9 trillion on our nation’s credit card, but also that 80 percent of the economic gains will eventually go to foreigners. Additionally, corporations are spending almost 40 times more on stock buybacks than they are spending on worker bonuses or wage increases.

“Every day, it becomes clearer that the big winners from the Washington Republican tax bill are foreigners and corporate CEOs,” said Scott McNeil, Executive Director of the North Dakota Democratic-NPL. “Not only did Kevin Cramer vote to increase the deficit by $1.9 trillion, he voted for a bill that gives 80 percent of economic gains to wealthy foreigners and offshore corporations. This isn’t ‘America First’ – it looks a whole lot more like America Last.”

Key points below:

Newsweek: TRUMP TAX PLAN: 80 PERCENT OF ECONOMIC GAINS WILL END UP GOING TO FOREIGNERS, CBO SAYS

  • But 80 percent of the economic growth generated by the Republican tax cuts will eventually go abroad and benefit foreigners, according to a new report by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office.
  • According to the CBO, on average 34 percent of income from the economic activity driven by the tax cuts is flowing out of the country, and in 2028, when the full effects of the tax cuts are in place, that number will increase to 80 percent.
  • An analysis of Fortune 500 companies found that corporations have spent 37 times more on stock buybacks than on American workers’ bonuses and wages.
  • At the same time, U.S. deficits are projected to balloon because of the decrease in revenue being collected under the tax cuts. The CBO projects that federal spending will exceed revenues by $804 billion in fiscal year 2018, up from $665 billion in 2017. The national debt is now on track to be 100 percent of GDP by 2028.

ICYMI: Largely due to Cramer’s budget-busting tax bill, deficit will surpass $1 trillion two years ahead of schedule

Report comes as Cramer laughed off debt concerns in tax bill
(BISMARCK, ND) – This week, the Congressional Budget Office projected a $1 trillion deficit two years sooner than previous estimates – largely thanks to the budget-busting tax bill Kevin Cramer supported. The report also noted that the tax bill will do little to spur long-term economic growth and will cost significantly more than we were told.

But after this $1.9 trillion dollar giveaway to billionaires and corporations, Kevin Cramer recently remembered he’s supposed to be a deficit hawk — now, deciding he wants a balanced budget amendment that will be voted on in the House today. Confused? We are, too.

For Kevin Cramer – this has always about politics, not principle. Just take a look at what he wants on the chopping block to give cash bonuses for corporate executives. It’s no secret: Social Security, Medicare and other programs North Dakotans depend on.

Senator Heitkamp, on the other hand, has supported a balanced budget amendment since 2012, and has continually fought to protect programs like Medicare and Social Security from cuts.

Key points from Bloomberg below:

Bloomberg: U.S. Deficit to Surpass $1 Trillion Two Years Ahead of Estimates

  • The U.S. budget deficit will surpass $1 trillion by 2020, two years sooner than previously estimated, as tax cuts and spending increases signed by President Donald Trump do little to boost long-term economic growth, according to the Congressional Budget Office.
  • The nation’s budget gap was only set to surpass the trillion-dollar level in fiscal 2022 under CBO’s report last June.
  • Deficits are growing as the Trump administration enacted a tax overhaul this year that will lower federal revenue and Congress approved a roughly $300 billion spending increase. The fresh CBO estimates could heighten investor worries as they weigh the potential impact that tariff threats between the U.S. and China may have on the world economy.
  • The report includes new projections for the effects of the tax legislation — saying it will increase the deficit by almost $1.9 trillion over the next 11 years, when accounting for its macroeconomic effects and increased debt-service costs. In December, Congress’s Joint Committee on Taxation had said the tax package would reduce federal revenue by almost $1.1 trillion over a 10-year period.
  • U.S. debt held by the public will surpass $20 trillion by fiscal 2022, up from $15.7 trillion this year, according to the CBO.

GOP senator: Deficits could make tax bill among “worst votes I’ve made” – so, where does Cramer stand?

Cramer previously laughed off debt concerns due to tax bill 

Report shows budget deficits rapidly increasing  largely due to fiscally irresponsible tax bill  

(BISMARCK, ND) – Yesterday, Senator Bob Corker (R-TN) backed off from his previous support of the Republican tax plan in a big way. Citing major concerns with projections showing the deficit rapidly increasing, Corker said the bill “could well be one of the worst votes I’ve ever made.”

The CBO recently reported that largely due to the Republican tax plan, the budget deficit will hit $1 trillion two years sooner than previously anticipated. The report also predicted the Republican tax plan would increase the deficit by about $1.9 trillion dollars – significantly higher than earlier estimates.

Here’s what Senator Corker had to say:

“If it ends up costing what has been laid out here, it could well be one of the worst votes I’ve made.”

Does Kevin Cramer agree with Senator Corker – or does he still think $1.9 trillion is something to laugh off?

Former Secretary of Agriculture and Governor of North Dakota Ed Schafer rebukes Cramer on tariffs

Governor Shafer calls Cramer’s “hysteria”comments unfair, “politics”

(BISMARCK, ND) – Ouch! Congressman Cramer just got burned by his old boss. Former Governor and U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Ed Schafer appeared on KFGO to talk about the president’s tariffs and the impact on North Dakota. Asked about Cramer’s condescending “hysteria” comment, Schafer fired back – saying that he thought Cramer’s was being unfair and political.

“Even North Dakota Republicans are appalled by Kevin Cramer’s blind loyalty to the president – turning his back on farmers and ranchers to prove he’s the ultimate rubber stamp for the White House,”said Scott McNeil, Executive Director of the North Dakota Democratic-NPL. “It’s shameful that Kevin Cramer called farmers and ranchers hysterical and instead chose to side with the president on the tariffs. North Dakotans will remember Cramer’s betrayal of the agricultural community on Election Day.”

Other highlights from Schafer’s interview:

  • Responding to Cramer’s hysteria comment:“Um, I don’t think it’s fair. I mean, I think it’s politics. I don’t think it’s fair. I think that, you know, the Trump administration is the one that said, ‘I’m going to put these tariffs on.’ Right? This wasn’t the GOP or the Democrat Party or whatever.”
  • On the president’s tariffs:“I’m jumbled up about it myself. You know, I’m worried because it just–I don’t think that the Trump administration gets–as much as they are ‘The Art of the Dealmaker,’–I don’t get, I don’t think they get the complexity of what they’re doing and how it affects the everyday lives of people in our country and the other country that they’re dealing with.”
  • On the president using tariffs as a negotiating tactic:“Um, so you know, do you hold your breath and say, ‘Oh, well maybe he’s just rattling the sabers on soybeans and they’ll give up on soybeans if they get what they want over on deck three,’ I worry about–I’m not comfortable with that, Joel.”

CHECKED OUT: At critical Facebook oversight hearing, Cramer… browses Facebook

Cramer previously said he didn’t understand the big dealsurrounding the Facebook controversy  

More than 60 percent of Facebook usersthink their data is unsafe

(BISMARCK, ND) – After answering Mitch McConnell’s call to run for Senate, Kevin Cramer has checked out of his responsibilities as North Dakota’s lone member of the House of Representatives. Today, all eyes are on the House Energy and Commerce Committee, where Facebook’s Mark Zuckerberg is facing questions about his company’s recklessness with consumer data. But Cramer’s eyes were somewhere else.

Instead of standing up for North Dakota consumers, Kevin Cramer was… browsing Facebook. That’s right. During the middle of the hearing, Cramer was caught browsing Facebook on his iPad – because for Cramer updating his Facebook cover photo was more important than protecting privacy and holding big tech CEOs accountable:

 

This isn’t the first time Cramer has been MIA on North Dakota’s privacy. Last week, Cramer said “I don’t even get the big deal”about Facebook’s data breach.

Abdication of Leadership: After Endorsing Potential Trade War-Inducing Tariffs, Cramer Fails to Acknowledge Farmers, Ranchers during GOP Acceptance Speech

As Farmers’ Groups Beg Cramer “Not to wreck the car in the first place” By Opposing Tariffs, Cramer Ignores Their Call
Bismarck, N.D. – It’s no secret Congressman Cramer is willing to turn his back on North Dakotans to curry favor with President Trump. Just hours after comparing not voting with President Trump to marital infidelity, Cramer deleted ‘unfaithful’ tweets to President Trump’s agenda where he announced his opposition to the president’s tariffs which could have a devastating impact on North Dakota’s farmers, then posted new ones endorsing the tariffs.

In case he hadn’t been clear enough – during the North Dakota Republican convention on Saturday, Cramer doubled down: Underscoring over and over the need for ‘one more vote’ for President Trump’s agenda in the Senate, Congressman Cramer completely ignored farmers and ranchers – failing to mention them, trade, or the looming threat of tariffs once in his speech.

You read that correctly. Congressman Cramer didn’t mention farmers, ranchers, trade or the backbreaking tariffs they could face: Not one single time.

“Congressman Cramer has done everything in his power to make clear to farmers and ranchers who his priority would be in the Senate – and it’s not our state,” said Scott McNeil, Executive Director of the North Dakota Dem-NPL. “After comparing a vote against Trump to cheating on a spouse, Cramer was quick to side with the president over North Dakota’s ag community on tariffs, even though he knows how they could devastate North Dakota farmers. But he didn’t stop there – he didn’t even mention farmers, ranchers or trade once during his speech once accepting the GOP nomination. Not one time. That’s about how often we can expect him to stand up for us – and it’s not the kind of cowardice North Dakotans deserve.”

The day Cramer neglected North Dakota farmers in his speech, The New York Times ran a story discussing just how severe President Trump’s tariffs could impact North Dakota farmers:

The New York Times: Farmers’ Anger at Trump Tariffs Puts Republican Candidates in a Bind

  • In North Dakota, a major soybean-producing state, Representative Kevin Cramer, a Republican who is running for the Senate, sounded restrained this past week when he urged Mr. Trump to “take a more measured approach” to China. By Friday, he sounded panicked.
  • China’s aggressive response to Mr. Trump’s tariffs is aimed squarely at products produced in the American heartland, a region that helped send him to the White House. A trade war with China could be particularly devastating to rural economies, especially for pig farmers and soybean and corn growers. Nearly two-thirds of United States soybean exports go to China.
  • But farm-state Republicans like Mr. Cramer believe that their constituents could be a casualty, and they are begging the Department of Agriculture to intervene.
  • In the past, these powers have been used to provide relief from wildfires and other natural disasters, farm groups said. But such a program could be time-consuming and costly.
  • Patrick Delaney, a spokesman for the American Soybean Association, said his group was still focused on trying to prevent the tariffs from going into effect, rather than examining what kind of measures the administration might take to support farmers. “It’s a whole lot easier not to wreck the car in the first place than it is to think about what a repair might look like,” he said.
  • For Republicans like Mr. Cramer, who is in a tough race against an incumbent Democrat, Senator Heidi Heitkamp, the president’s threat to sharply escalate the administration’s tariffs on Chinese imports — and China’s threat to retaliate against American farm products — spells trouble in this year’s midterm races. Mr. Cramer’s aides did not respond to requests for comment.