ND ag bankers are told to “brace for a ‘long’” and “unpredictable, unforeseen event with extreme consequences

(BISMARCK, ND) – The Cramer-endorsed trade war is having disastrous consequences across North Dakota, not only for farmers but for bankers, agribusinesses, and the state’s overall economy. AgWeek reports that “the period of soybean price reductions due to the Chinese trade war […] will have a ‘long’ effect” on the state,” specifically citing “secondary effects” to agribusinesses.

Meanwhile, CNBC reports that North Dakota “soybeans from 2017 are still in storage after China pulled its contracts. Of the 15.9 million bushels left from that year’s crop, 12.1 million bushels are sitting in grain elevators. That is an increase of 68 percent.”

And what has Kevin Cramer done to mitigate these disastrous effects? He’s continued to pay lip service to North Dakota’s farmers, claiming he doesn’t support tariffs but still standing with the administration 100 percent when it comes to implementing them. What’s worse, now AgWeek reports that Cramer’s actions and rhetoric “almost derailed” trade negotiations with Canada. According to several officials in Canada, Cramer’s “public comments during the negotiations… almost derailed the inclusion of [a revision to the grain grading system] in the final agreement.”

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AgWeek: ND ag bankers riding the ‘black swan’

  • The period of soybean price reductions due to the Chinese trade war, initiated by the Donald Trump administration, will have a “long” effect, says a North Dakota State University distinguished professor of agricultural economics.
  • Wilson said the U.S. “would have to capture virtually 100 percent of every other small market to offset what we lost from China, which is impossible. It can’t happen.”
  • In an analysis in April 2018, Wilson calculated that soybean prices should be about $13 per bushel in the absence of a trade war, and about $7 per bushel with a trade war. “We’re just under $7 per bushel right now,” he said.
  • Wilson, who researches and teaches grain marketing, showed a Thomson Reuters map that plots the physical coordinates of soybean shipments moving worldwide. Trade showed ships going all over the world in December 2016 but in July 2018, no ships were leaving the U.S.
  • That’s an effect on farmers, and then secondary effects will come to agribusinesses, He concluded: “I’m really scared of where we are,” Sinner said, adding, “We’ve got a big problem.”

CNBC: Farmers struggle to store crops as US tariffs start to take their toll

  • United States tariffs are beginning to take their toll on farmers and the storage, shipping and freight operations they need to move their crops to market.
  • In North Dakota, soybeans from 2017 are still in storage after China pulled its contracts. Of the 15.9 million bushels left from that year’s crop, 12.1 million bushels are sitting in grain elevators. That is an increase of 68 percent.
  • “There aren’t any shipping contracts to move them out of those facilities and get them to ports in the Pacific Northwest for export, either,” said Simon Wilson, executive director of the North Dakota Trade Office.
  • With this year’s crop now being harvested, the lack of available storage means some soybeans may have to be stored on the ground in bags, a challenge for this temperamental crop. According to the North Dakota Soybean Growers Association, farmers in the state contracted to sell an estimated 40 percent of the 2018 crop.

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